- Military News Analysis -
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Jerusalem,with inputs from correspondents at London, Brussels and Moscow:
Going by the sequence of events that have so far unfolded themselves, we feel that the coming war against Global Terrorism, is going to take the following pattern:
The Preamble to the War: Diplomatic and Political success followed by a military stalemate
With the events unfolding themselves at all major capital, we feel that while we would witness many military successes it would be followed by a general diplomatic and political stalemate as seen today in Iraq. There is also political success in the form of the wide international support to US efforts. But this support is of the three broad types - active, passive and also reluctant support. Those actively supporting the alliance led by the USA; are the NATO allies, Russia and the former Soviet Republics, Israel, Japan, India, and the governments of Jordan, Indonesia etc. Those passively supporting it are the People's Republic of China, Iran, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, etc. Those reluctantly supporting it are the governments of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, UAE, and other Gulf states. The majority of the populations of these countries have either sneaking or open sympathy for Osama Bin Laden and his ilk. There are fringe countries who outright oppose the US led alliance. These countries are Syria and Iran (obviously), Cuba, North Korea. But then these countries hardly matter in the global scene.
The Stalemate we see today
Many readers will castigate us for shooting our mouth off on this. Yes it is a bit early to say that there is or will be shortly a Military Stalemate. But the trends are already visible. While there may be many military initiatives that we do not know of and which may become visible in the days to come. Going by what we see till date, it seems that the current US military (mainly Naval) build-up reminds us of the Iranian frenzy at their borders with Afghanistan a few years back, after the Taliban stormed into Kabul and slaughtered eleven Iranian diplomats. For all the sand and dust kicked up by the Iranian Army and Revolutionary Guards, there was no action taken and things cooled down abruptly. Many will say that the US is not Iran, Yes it is not. So let us see what happens. But if the US destroyers and cruisers do not see action in a few weeks form now, then their movement will amount to drum-beating of a Military March Past. We think we are wrong in this assessment. Let's see. The coming weeks will tell.
Round - 1 : The Present Non-Conventional Phase being fought with Special Forces; and its fallout
The fallout of the non-conventional phase will soon be felt. The British SAS and the US Special Forces are already within the ranks of the Northern Alliance and are spreading toward the Taliban-Northern Alliance frontlines. Unconfirmed reports of the Taliban apprehending US and Afghan-Americans lead further credence to the fact that the conventional war is on. The fallout of this would be increased POWs being taken by the Taliban. Incidents like the Taliban apprehending of a British Journalist who slipped incognito into Taliban held territory, would be replicated in the near future as some Journalists and more Special Forces sneak across the Taliban lines. Not that success would be a one way street, with the Taliban apprehending those who sneak into their domain. But the many creeping but startling successes could be reported by the Special Forces by blowing up some of the hideouts (caverns and caves) where the Taliban and their guests are holed up. In fact with creeping successes that the Special Forces would notch up in the coming few weeks will see first the Political and then Military Fallout of these successes.
The Political Fallout of the success of the Special Forces
The first fallout would be internal to the Arab and the Islamic world where there would be a resultant outcry in the masses calling for their countries pulling out of the coalition. This could see the reluctant countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, UAE, other Gulf states, Iran, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, etc. making an exit from the alliance. Countries like Jordan and Pakistan would either leave the US led alliance, or their existing governments would be overthrown by the volatile masses. The reverberations would be felt at the UN, OIC, Arab League, NAM, etc.
Reports that the Pakistani government is hatching a plot to overthrow Mullah Omar in an intra-Taliban coup
There are reports that the Pakistani government is hatching a plot to overthrow Mullah Omar in an intra-Taliban coup and replacing Omar with that section of the Taliban that would be amenable to either bump off Laden hand him over to the Americans. With Laden being delivered gagged and bound to the Americans by the pro-Pakistani section of the Taliban with a humiliating trail in an American or an international tribunal, the perceived ego smash that the Jihadis across the globe would go through is severe. And this severity would be felt in the resultant outcry in the Arab world and in the rest of the Muslim world which would be extremely volatile.
After Osama Bin Laden is either captured or killed
The other probable outcome is of Osama Bin Laden being hunted down and killed by the Special Forces. In this scenario the damage the Jihadis would try to cause the world over could set an altogether new precedent in devastation not seen till now. With or without Laden, the war-mongering ideology of Islamic Terrorists can bring death and destruction on the entire human species all across our planet. The situation today is really calamitous.
Even the American War Office knows that he has already devised up to three rounds of counter-attacks, in response to what the Americans would do in reply to the carnage at Manhattan and Pentagon. Laden has set the agenda for the years to come. This is evident from his proclamation "Alarzu Lillah, Walhukmu Lillah." (This means, "The Earth belongs to Allah and thus only Allah's rule should prevail all over the earth."). This proclamation amounts to a 'declaration of war' on the entire non-Muslim world, and coming as it is from a paranoid psychopath who is capable of inflicting mass destruction in different parts of the world, these words need to be taken seriously and acted upon in a coordinated manner by all the sensible nations; or we shall perish one by one.
With or without Laden, the war-mongering ideology of Islamic Terrorists can bring death and destruction on the entire human species all across our planet
This attitude is not Bin Laden's personal attitude but it represents the world view of Islam. And the Islamic terrorists (soldiers of Islam) operating all across the globe, are today typified by the above proclamation made by Laden - the best known face of international Islamic terrorism of Jehad. The 'Jehad' means indulging in warfare to convert non-Muslims to Islam at the pain of death. This has been happening in the last 14 centuries, ever since the founding of Islam by Prophet Mohammed Paigamber in Arabia. The common Islamic technique of invasion was to send in an ultimatum to the neighboring non-Muslim ruler to convert to Islam, or face the threat of invasion by the armies of Islam.
We have to understand the Military Implications of the concept of the Islamic Jehad
Today the Jehad has changed to take the form of Terrorism of the kind we saw at the destruction of the World Trade Center and the devastation of the Pentagon, and earlier events like the bombing of two American embassies, the earlier attack on the WTC. In addition the Jehad manifests itself in the mindless violence seen at Kashmir, West Bank, Gaza, Macedonia, the apartment bombings at Moscow the violence in Chechnya, Dagestan, the Abu Sayyaf violence in South Philippines, etc. And of course since the USA (together with the Western Allies) is the greatest hurdle to the global success of the Jehad; we keep hearing the recurrent slogan "DEATH TO THE GREAT SATAN AMERICA" in Gaza, Karachi, Tehran, Kabul, Islamabad, Beirut, Cairo, Damascus, and many other parts of the volatile Islamic World today.
As mentioned above, the threat of Osama Bin Laden is not a personal phenomenon; it represents an ideology of religious fanaticism and a track record of terrorism (Jehad) backed by Islamic Theology of the Quran. A track record that is 1400 years old. In a few years from now, this can lead us to a worldwide nuclear holocaust that could destroy the gains of all past human civilization. In today's context, Laden's proclamation represents a challenge of a sub-human mentality to global human civilization. Laden's capture or annihilation would see a military fallout of the present phase where Special Forces are trying to smoke him out or hunt him down.
The Military fallout, of the success of the Special Forces, to be felt outside Afghanistan
The Military fallout of the Special Forces would not be seen in Afghanistan, but in the soft underbelly of the enemies of the Taliban - the world at large. It could be felt in Melbourne, Madrid, Vancouver, Mexico City, Brasilia, or at any other unexpected place and in an unexpected manner. While the Serin nerve gas and Anthrax are the talk of the town, the attack could be something we have never thought of so far. With death squads as enemies, we need be prepared for everything imaginable and not imaginable. But the fact remains that the diplomatic, political success and the accompanying slow, but steady success of the Special forces and their allies like the Northern Alliance will lead to dramatic and unexpected re-action on other parts of the globe with like the WTC/Pentagon attacks.
A Conventional War : The Beginning of Round - 2
The second round of attacks will lead to the beginning of Round - 2 of the coming war. With the resultant popular outburst cries for active action against the terrorists in the countries affected by the fallout of Round - 1, the USA and allies would have to start off an active conventional war against the Taliban. This would be much like the War with Iraq in 1991. Now with the reports of civilian casualties (with events like the bomb shelter being hit at Baghdad), there would be a resultant outcry in the masses in the Arab and the Islamic world for their countries' joining the counter action against the USA and its allies. This would be the turning point in the war and may see a lot of dilly-dallying on part of countries like Pakistan, whose leader President Musharraf knows the outcome of being on the opposite side of the USA in any war. In this context what we see today in the form of a humanitarian crisis of the refugee influx will play a pivotal role in the future course of the war. The Arab nations will withdraw en masse from the alliance and would be followed by many non-Arab Muslim nations.
A matter of time before the Jihadis come to control Pakistan's nuclear arsenal
The more dangerous fallout would be through the mass of refugees that would pack the frontiers of countries like Pakistan, Tajikistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, etc. Now this influx of refugees could have many Taliban spies and Taliban regulars who would in the next stage of this war infiltrate and de-stabilize the countries where they would have infiltrated in the guise of refugees. In a country like Pakistan they would join the pro-Taliban elements in the private rogue armies and with connivance of the Talibanized sections of the Pakistan regular army, try to secure control on Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal. Without mincing words, Osama Bin Laden has said that the Jihadis need to acquire nuclear weapons. The well-fed and well-built folks seems in the swarms of refugees (as noted by the correspondents of some TV channels) could be the medium to realize Osama's wish of the Jihadis acquiring nuclear weapons. To some readers this will appear preposterous, in the light of Pakistani President telling CNN correspondent Christine Amanpour that Pakistani nuclear arsenal is in the hands of a loyal Pakistani Army. But the question is to whom are the Corps Commanders of the Pakistani Army loyal to? Major General Hamid Gul, ex-boss of Pakistan's ISI and Major General Aslam Beg the former Commander-in-Chief of the Pakistani Army both have openly called for support to the Taliban. In this dangerous context, it is a matter of time when the Jihadis come to control Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
The Nuclear Phase : Round - 3
With the skeletal, but devastating nuclear power in the hands of the Jihadis, Western Cities would be targeted by with this arsenal. This would lead to the last and decisive phase of the coming war. It is in this phase that the war would become a no-holds-barred one on part of the US and its allies. With the disproportionate superiority of nuclear, neutron, and other high technology weaponry the USA an its allies would easily win the final phase of this war. The crux is that they USA and its allies have this superiority in weapon technology even today. But more important they have to cope up with the burden of carrying the cross of civilized behaviour on their shoulders. Only when they let down this cross and take a tit-for-tat approach with their desperado enemies, can they hope for victory. They will emerge victorious. But then in today's context, this victory will not be secured tomorrow. The Round - 1 of this war will go on for a few months. The Round - 2 will run through for a few years, maybe a decade and Round - 3 would be the finale spread over maybe a couple of years.
But the agonizing suffering which humankind will have to endure till then, would be due to the burden of the Cross of Civilized Behaviour and Moral Scruples as regards the use of weapons of mass destruction which the USA and its allies have today. These scruples their Jihadi enemies do not have.
A Hypothetical Case Reversal Scenario
For an reader who still finds the prognosis made on this page to be highly provocative, here is an hypothesis: Instead of the Jihadis, let us assume that on the 11th of September some desperadoes like of the Soldiers of Christ or the Skinheads or the Bach Davidians or someone like Timothy McWeigh (of Oklahoma fame) had crashed an hijacked Saudi or Egyptian civilian airliner into the Kaaba at Mecca and the mosque at Medina, what would have been the reaction of the Arab and Muslim states in a scenario where only they were privy to the secret of the Atom bomb; while the Western World represented the third world and was as weak militarily as the Arab and Muslim states are today.
Any Guesses about the nature and speed of the very certain mortal retribution that the Nuclear capable Arab world would have exacted from the hypothetically weak Western World?
Read other pages bringing you an Analysis of the Latest Global News at newsonterror.com
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