Military News Analysis
- Armageddon : Thus spaketh the Lord (Extracts from the Bible)
- News on Terror -
New York, with inputs from our Washington Bureau: Analysis of the Latest Global Happenings
Robin MacArthur, New Jersey
Armageddon - Thus spaketh the Lord (Extracts from the Bible)
The mammoth march of Jewish Americans in Washington has struck a responsive chord among many American Senators about the legitimacy of the war that the Israelis have been forced to wage. For many of the Senators, Israel is just carrying out its role in the Biblical Prophesy according to which:
Matthew 24:6 - BLB- As we approach the end we will hear of wars and rumors of wars. Article 26 - Wars and Rumors of Wars
The many wars with Muslims that started with the Lebanese Civil War between the Maronite Christians and the Muslims in the 1970s
Revelation 16:12-21 - BLB- The Battle of Armageddon is one of three wars which must still be fought. Article 63 - Time of the War of Armageddon
The third world war?
Matthew 24:7 - BLB- Earthquakes will increase toward the end. Article 29 - Earthquakes
They have started in Afghanistan
Revelation 19:11-21 - BLB- Antichrist and kings of earth will be assembled to make war against Christ. Article 81 Battle of Armageddon
The impending coalition of Arab and Muslim nations?
Revelation 20:14-15 - BLB- Antichrist (the beast) and the False Prophet will be cast into the Lake of Fire at the end of the Battle of Armageddon. Article 84 - The Last War
A thermonuclear cauldron?
In the context of the above do you remember the images of Palestinians clapping and singing and distributing candy on 9/11? This captures the innermost mindset of the Palestinians about the USA. With the situation in the Middle East reaching a boiling point, what can stop a Palestinian émigré settled in the USA from making a bomb and exploding himself (or herself) at Times Square in New York? Nothing. Just because this has not happened till date, there is no guarantee that this incident cannot occur in the US sometime in the future. We write this basing ourselves on the growing size and virulence of the pro-Palestinian protests by Muslim groups that are more anti-American than pro- Palestinian.
How to stop the Palestinian Intifadah from spreading to the USA?
The cries the Palestinians in Gaza, as also the Arab and Muslim immigrants in America, raise are never for peace but always for war and violence. They seem all geared-up for a fight with Israel and the USA. They do not tell Israel that its counter-attack on the Palestinians is not justified, since the Palestinians never threatened the existence of Israel, that the Palestinians always wished that Israel survives and thrives. Why do these protestors not condemn Israel by saying that the Israelis are attacking a peace-loving and peace-seeking non-violent and pacifist community like the Palestinians? Simply because the Palestinians are a warlike community who do not want peace. They want war and do not want to co-exist with Israel, they want to destroy Israel. The situation for Israel is not "live and let live" as the Israelis would want, but "kill or be killed" in a war that is being imposed on them by the Palestinians.
Since war-mongering seems to be very apparently the mindset of the anti-American protesters, it is just a matter of time before the first act of violence is witnessed in the USA. What is happening today in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa will repeat itself in Manhattan, Washington, and perhaps London, and Paris too.
With Islam being the fastest growing religion in the USA, it should provide a growing audience for the USA baiters to raise a cry for a Jihad against the US and recruits ready to become martyrs (sic) while carrying out their heinous acts of suicide bombings in the USA . The Department of Homeland Security needs to read the writing on the wall and take defensive measure immediately. These can include preemptive detention of the organizers of the anti-Israeli protests. Also a de-linking of the American strategy with Iraq and the Palestinian problem would make it easier to distinguish the wood from the trees and roll out the war with Iraq without seeking that illusory Arab support for which Israel is being asked to withdraw from the West Bank.
The Arabs are preparing today for the worst
The Arabs expect this eventuality and to prepare for this they have recently started their troop movements that have been discreetly reported. The Arabs are preparing today for the worst case scenario, to counteract an American action in favour of Israel, as the situation worsens. The proposed summit of Arab and Muslim nations at Cairo that has been called at the instance of the Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi, would have this as an unstated item on its agenda. Many Arab and Muslim statesmen would also be predicting such a turn of events and would be preparing for this kind of an eventuality. (Incidentally the Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi aften sports a blue turban, as does the third Anti-Christ of Nostradamus who also would wear a blue turban when he would declare Islam's war against Christendom!)
The five Muslim nations - Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan have nuclear capability. Pakistan's capability was brought out into the open, forced by a show of retaliatory belligerence against the Indian nuclear tests in 1998. But the other four Muslim nations also have undeclared nuclear capability.
What they may lack is delivery mechanism and given a choice would have liked to wait for a few more decades before a military showdown with the West, had Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaeda not rushed the fences on 9/11.
But on 9/11 the die was cast by Laden and now the pitch is being further queered by the Israeli military action in the West Bank. And so the Muslim Rage is being raised to a level that is unprecedented in the history of Islam of the last fourteen hundred years. This can be seen in the anti-Israeli and anti-American flag and effigy burning seen across the capitals in the Muslim world since the war started in Afghanistan.
What we may be a witness to in the days to come
What the coming days may see are an increase in the attacks against Western Journalists as has been symbolized by the Daniel Pearl case; also and more attacks on Churches as a continuation of the attacks on Synagogues that have started in Europe. The attack on the Protestant Church in Islamabad is a symptom of this disease.
Meanwhile in Pakistan, General Musharraf has quietly started releasing many terrorists whom he had apprehended post January 12th after he delivered his history changing speech denouncing (but not renouncing) terrorism as an instrument of Pakistani state policy. Musharraf has begun to stab America in the back, although the Americans may not realize his motives for some more months. But it would be pragmatic if the Americans and other Western nations ask their diplomats in the Arab and Muslim countries to be cautious and also withdraw excess diplomatic staff, as the Americans have already done in Pakistan.
We do not need a crystal ball to say that in this dangerous global scenario, what will ignite the flames of war would be the Arab ground offensive against Israel across the Lebanese border with regular troops disguised as Mujahideen followed by Iraq's resuming of Scud missile attacks on Israeli cities. Hence it would be prudent for Israel, the USA and the EU to foresee this and take pre-emptive action so that Nostradamus' prophesy can cause less damage to American, Israeli and Western interests while it works its way towards redemption.
With Israel exploding, Laden's and Musharraf''s gameplan seems all set to succeed
Looking at the tumultuous anti-Israeli and anti-American protests, and flag burnings that have started once again in capitals across the Arab world, Osama's gameplan of arousing the Islamic Ummah (population) against the "Great Satan", USA and its "Little Satan" Israel appears all set to succeed. Not that anyone can prevent the Islamic Ummah from uniting against the rest of the world to spread the Jihad, but the point to be noted is that the present string of suicide attacks in Israel, in the context of the Saudi Peace plan are meant to upset the peace-maker's applecart that the USA wants to push ahead with General Zinni's efforts. On his part, Osama has given an indication that his is alive and kicking by sending an e-mail to the editor of an Arabic periodical published from London, condemning the Saudi Peace Plan. A plan if it had succeeded, would have taken the sting out of the anti-Israeli terrorism of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad. This is a point that many would miss out in the heat of current events in the Middle East.
Taking a global view, the defeat of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, saw them taking refuge in Pakistan. A country where they are till now not allowed to operate freely since its ruler Pervez Musharraf has formally pledged to fight terrorism. A pledge which the PLO chairman Yasser Arafat has not given. We surmise that Musharraf has very deftly and smartly played a role in deflecting the storm brewing in Pakistan by using the ISI to divert the Al Qaeda's new theatre from Pakistan itself towards Israel. Not many are going to agree with us here. But we think there is more than meets the eye in the current explosion of suicide attacks in Israel.
With Afghanistan as a jumping pad for its operations now lost to the Al Qaeda, it needed to keep the fires of the Jihad burning somewhere else. Pakistan could have been the logical choice due to its geographical proximity to Afghanistan and the ISI's history of patronage to the Al Qaeda. But with Musharraf, formally committed to the USA in fighting terrorism, he could not allow the Jihad to be staged from Pakistan. The abduction and murder of Daniel Pearl and the Attack on the Church in Islamabad were the few isolated indications of the Jihadi presence in Pakistan. An outlet was needed if Pakistan was to remain calm. And the outlet is Israel. The Hamas which is a member of the Al Qaeda stable, was used to intensify suicide attacks in Israel to prevent the Saudi Peace Plan from disturbing the Al Qaeda's plan for continuing the global Jihad.
In today's heat of events, we should not lose track of this undercurrent to the happenings in the middle east. In the light of this it would be advisable for the USA to keep an eagle's eye as well as its guns trained on the kingpin of all this - Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaeda and his facilitator, the ISI of Pakistan and its Chameleon President Musharraf. And with Musharraf, like Zia-ul-Haq before him, ensuring that a referendum gives him a permanent place at the helm in Pakistan, the USA has a really tricky partner to play ball with for a long time. How long that time would be is upto the Americans to decide.
Lessons to be learnt while pursuing the war against terror, post Operation Anaconda phase
In the post Operation Anaconda phase of the war on terror, what can we learn from the confrontation of non-Muslims with Muslims over the last fourteen centuries. What can we learn especially from the Israeli confrontation with the Palestinians (who are one sample of the wider Muslim mindset).
The Israelis strike back every time the Intifada Mujahids strike with fidayeen suicide attacks. In fact the Israelis also have the track and kill kind of strikes of those Palestinian bigwigs who plan the killing of Israeli citizens.
But what the Israelis have not done are - pre-emptive strikes. Had they done so, they would have had to strike those Palestinians who have not yet indulged in acts of murder, but who the Israeli think could indulge in such acts in future. This would be a dicey affair unless you believe that the Palestinians (and the wider Muslim community) represent a criminal mindset wherever they reside on the globe. And that being a Muslim and subscribing to the Quran is itself enough to make a person act violently against non-Muslims, without any provocation. And that for an average Muslim, the very existence of a Christian, Jew, Hindu, Buddhist, Communist, Animist or any other non-Muslim; would be an act of provocation that merits retaliation in the form of giving an option to convert to Islam or be killed. If outright killing is not possible then the non-Muslim be persecuted into submission to accepting Islam. This being the central tenet of the Quran that expresses itself in the Muslim mindset in various forms wherever the situation permits, the Muslims support co-existence, secularism, etc only when they are not powerful enough to overcome their adversary. To some readers this may assessment of Islam will appear stark and brazen, but then it is real. and that is the point.
The Israeli policy that is considered to be too harsh with the Palestinians also does not recognize this hard reality of Islamic world view. Had it been so, then the Israelis would have relentlessly worked for the obliteration of the threat that the Palestinians pose to the very existence of Israel - or for that matter to all non-Muslim all over the globe.
If Israelis want to survive, then their policy should have the single-minded aim of obliteration of the Palestinians. Now how is this to be done. And why is this to be done? The answer is that this is just a logical inversion of what Islam wants to do with all non-Muslims! The only power since the birth of Islam to stop and roll back the Islamic invasion has been that of the Christians embodied in the Franks, Hispanics, Russians and few others Christian denominations. But then these Christian adversaries of the Muslims could not outmatch, or even match the fervor and fanaticism of the Muslims. Once they were militarily victorious, they gave the defeated Muslim population three options 1. Convert to Christianity, 2. Migrate en masse out of the Christian ruled territory, or 3. Face death. Most Muslims emigrated out of Spain after the Christian re-conquest of Muslim Spain.
In all of Islamic history it was only the Mongols under Chenghiz Khan and Hulagu Khan who not just matched; but in fact grossly outmatched the Muslims in their barbarity. The Mongol hordes wrought havoc on all parts of the Muslim world they overran between 1205 and 1258. They brought under the hooves of their steeds, Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq; but did not carry on their victorious orgy into the Arabian peninsula - the heartland of the faith. The Mongols burned down Baghdad - the seat of the Caliphate, executed the Caliph (Khalifa) and slaughtered all men, women and children down to the last person. Macabre as it was, had the Mongols reached Mecca and after giving it the same treatment as they did to Baghdad, held on to it, then the history of the world would have been different. Maybe today, we would have had to fight the Mongols instead of the Muslims! After causing havoc; the Mongols suddenly disappeared into the blue, as suddenly as they had emerged from it.
But the fact remains that out of the only two denominations which have militarily defeated the Muslims, - the Mongols and the Christians; it was only the Christians, in the middle ages, who won in the long term through either conversion, expulsion, or annihilation of the Muslims in the lands they overran. The Mongols had no desire to bring any such change, their object was vandalization and slaughter. Thus although they defeated the Muslims, they themselves belonged to a lower level of human consciousness - wild and savage that they were. In the future, in order to ensure a meaningful victory over the Muslims, we need a combination of ruthlessness like that of the Mongols, persistence like that of the Christians of the middle ages (Franks, Hispanics, Russians), and in addition we also need the will to carry out the mission of destroying Islam and all other expressions of religious fanaticism to its finale of complete, and hopefully permanent, extinction in all corners of this planet. The moral of the story so far is that you cannot half kill a snake. It will heal its wounds, get smarter and strike back at you some day. This is moral the Americans have to learn today when they go about the war on terror.
Here the Israeli experience of half killing the snake with their track and kill policy through which the Israeli have been living in hell; has a lot to teach us. They have been sowing the wind and reaping the whirlwind with no end in sight to the ever growing cycle of terror. From this we need to learn that the Global War on Terror needs to be fought with a single-minded purpose of completely rooting out Islamic fanaticism without seeking provocation or a rationale or justification for any action towards that goal. The war has to be carried on single-mindedly till the all those who have the Islamic mindset in them cease to exist (cease to be Muslims or migrate to another planet!). This catharsis should culminate in the elimination of all other expressions of fanaticism religious or otherwise. This elimination would have to be physical or intellectual, depending on the zeal of the fanatics. If the fanaticism of the non-Muslims measure upto that of the Muslims; then the elimination would also have to be like that of the Muslims. But we are still quite far from that stage; since between that stage and today stands the Muslim challenge to human civilization.
Net net, human society the world over is facing the need for a catharsis. And in this catharsis the forces of reason, and rationalism cannot afford to lose to those of fanaticism and hate that the expression of religion has brought us to.
Nuke strike plans and expanding the War on Terror
While addressing the meet on the lawns of the White House to mark the six month anniversary of 9/11, President George Bush asked for God's Blessings not for America alone, but for the Coalition against Terror. This marks a departure from the standard approach so far. The horizon is now wider; beyond Homeland Security. And security is sought for the entire international community in the interests of human civilization.
Incidentally, some days before this speech, a report that came from the Pentagon, detailing plans for a retaliatory a nuclear strike against Russia, China, North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya. The report has been termed as "dynamite" by a US spokesman. But it has not drawn any response from the Russians; and has drawn only mild response from the Chinese in the form of a report showing the Human Rights record of the US in a poor light. Such responses can realistically be described as a lack of response from the Russians and Chinese. And significantly, the unstated 'Axis of Evil' now includes Syria and Libya too in addition to Iran and Iraq.
These two different pronouncements - President's invoking god's blessings for the entire coalition; and the lack of response from the Russians and the cool response from the Chinese to the American plans for retaliatory nuclear attacks against these two countries among other countries; indicates that a new undeclared coalition that countenances the use of nukes against Syria and Libya, Iran and Iraq is emerging and this coalition includes Russia and China in addition to the NATO member states. All this seems just like another conjecture, but the coming months may prove that it is not.
The 'Axis of Evil' and all that rotates on it
To checkmate the Axis of Evil, the USA, and its allies in this War against Terror, need to go about systematically de-fanging the destructive capability of the nuclear capable Islamic states of Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan. Now here begins the trouble.
Pakistan, or rather the Musharraf government in Pakistan is a declared ally of the USA in the War against Terror. Saudi Arabia is a gas supplier for six decades now (gas as in gasoline). Egypt is a near ally and need not be prematurely antagonized. So that leaves Iraq with whom there is an unfinished war which the Iraqis call the 'mother of all battles'. And of course Iran which though off late has shown liberalizing tendencies has always been at the forefront with the slogan 'Death to the Great Satan America'. North Korea was thrown into the Axis, less because it has clandestinely supplied enriched uranium to meet the Islamic world's nuclear aspirations, and more as a red herring. No pun intended on the word 'Red'. North Korea is in the Axis as a deflection, so that there is no clamor right now that the USA's War against Terror is in fact a 'War on Islam'. Which is what it should be if it is not so already.
The USA needs to carry the War against Terror into its Phase - 2, by de-fanging the destructive capability of the nuclear capable Islamic states. It is our guess that this is in fact the war strategy. With weapons inspectors being readied for a serious investigation into Iraq's WMD capability, the stage should be set for an air campaign against this errant state by mid-summer of 2002. With summer heat the bombing campaign should have its maximum impact. The ground assault can be launched at the end of autumn, to be carried out through the winter of 2002-2003, and completed before the winter is through, with Baghdad seeing the Saddam regime being replaced by a more civilized regime.
With Iraq being put out of business, it would be the turn of Iran to be de-fanged. How the Iranian chapter of the War against Terror would play out is anybody's guess. But the end result can be not much different from Iraq, with the Khamenei/Khatami regime being replaced by a more civilized regime. The Pakistani chapter is even more hazier. It would hinge on President Musharraf tuning his policies perfectly into the strategy of the War against Terror. If he does not do so or does not remain around to do so, then a violent American campaign to de-fang Pakistan's nuclear capability is not unforeseeable, The recent failure of Sultan Bashiruddin Mehmood in a lie detector test is damning clue if not a clinching evidence of the retired Pakistani nuclear scientist's (and by extension Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence - ISI's) clandestine role in passing of nuclear capability to the Al Qaeda. This is the most worrying factor in this entire exercise of de-fanging the Islamic World's nuclear capability. If this capability has already slipped into the hands of the shadowy Al Qaeda then the job is manifold difficult with unpredictable and dangerous results. This kind of a possibility leaves a question mark on the sequence of events involving Pakistan while de-fanging the Islamic world of its nuclear capability.
With this exception, the Egyptian chapter could be closer in resemblance to the Pakistani chapter. The culmination of the campaign to de-fang the Islamic world's nuclear capability would be the Saudi chapter. This would be the most unforeseeable part. But the fact remains that to win the War against Terror, the USA, and its allies in this War against Terror, need to de-fang the Islamic world's nuclear capability. The first chapter of this exercise begins with Iraq and the phrase 'Axis of Evil' is the opening statement of the first chapter.
The successful completion of the de-fanging campaign should be followed-up with the mopping up of the Islamic Jihad through the remaining parts of the Islamic world. The end of the mopping up operation should signal the successful end of the War against Terror.
In the course of these events the other side shows could be the campaign in Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, which along with the campaign in Iraq and then in Iran, would effectively surround Saudi Arabia and make the campaign to de-fang its nuclear capability logistically easier.
But what could upset this kind of a war plan is the much loathed second wave of terror attacks against the USA or the West in the form of Dirty Bombs, attacks on nuclear installations, a clandestine attack with chemical-biological weapons or with any other unforeseeable medium. If this happens unexpectedly soon, then it would pre-pone the plan of action. We need to be on Red Alert against this second wave of terror attacks and prevent them from happening if the War against Terror is to follow the course being set for it. Let's see how the future events unfold.
Visible and Hidden Threats to Western Civilization
While it is certain that the USA is sometime going about finishing it "Unfinished War" with Saddam, what is not yet clear is how the USA will finish the War against Al Qaeda an organisation which is intractably intertwined with Pakistan - historically, ideologically, and geographically. In the much awaited Phase - 2 of the War against Terror, while Iraq could be one theater would be easy, since it provides a definite target - geographically and ideologically. The real challenge lies in tracking down the Al Qaeda. While we cannot downplay the dangers from Iraq and its chemical, biological (and perhaps nuclear) arsenal; what we see is the stark clarity of Iraq as an enemy of Western Civilization and of civilization in general. But one thing everyone has to admit, Iraq is neither invisible nor is it elusive. It does not operate in shadows and does not and cannot hide in caves. We are not gainsaying the fact that Iraq is an enemy of Western Civilization and it will have to be tackled sometime or the other. What we are saying is that the manner of tackling it is clear to everybody, laser-guided bombs, ICBMs, Patriots to neutralize their Scuds, and the rest of it to soften Iraq sufficiently, before the marines can walk in with the Iraqi resistance to formally take charge in Baghdad - as it happened in Kabul.
The question remains of the remnants of the Al Qaeda which are today devoid of open state patronage, as they had with the Taliban. Now with the Taliban being consigned to the trashcan of history, the Al Qaeda has now really become a state-less organisation and has no open and formal state sponsorship today. But what about its sponsorship by a state-within-a-state? Many would ask "Huh! Whadda you mean?" We mean the Pakistan's ISI (Inter Services Intelligence), the pro-Jihad sections of the Pakistani Military, Bureaucracy, Political bodies like the Jamaat-i-islami, the rogue private armies like the Jaish, Lashkar, Hizb, etc who are organically linked to the Al Qaeda. How can the USA cut the umbilical cord that links Pakistan with the Al Qaeda? This is the sticky question that the Americans will have to answer while pursuing the Phase - 2 of the War against Terror.
Granted that they have enlisted the participation and loyalty of General Pervez Musharraf himself. But can he set those sections loyal to him and his agenda, to physically move against the pro-Jihad sections in Pakistan? If he cannot do so, then what way are the Americans prepared to take on the pro-Jihad sections in Pakistan whose outgrowth the Al Qaeda is? This is the moot question to be addressed by the USA in the Phase - 2 of the War against Terror.
Task List to counter Daniel Pearl's Murder
What needs to be done now is for Western secret service organisations to get their show together for an unannounced campaign to target anti-West journalists from media like Al Jazeera, Arab News, Dawn, Ausaf, Jang and give them a taste of their own medicine, as the Jihadis did with Danny. Only such a deterrence will prevent them from spewing out anti-Western propaganda in which they have outdone Dr. Gobbels, while their Jihadi brothers are kidnapping Western journalists and murdering them, to put the fear of death in their hearts to demoralize them from investigating the terrorist underworld and filing reports that expose the true face of terrorism.
This can be followed by targeting of the more rabid of anti-West politicians (we assume that all Muslim politicians are anti-West), military officers, intelligence chiefs, businessmen who finance terrorism, etc., so as to put the same fear in their hearts. We may be told that they do not fear death and in fact are seeking it. Fine enough, give them what they are seeking at double speed. Only such a pro-active policy in the Phase - 2 of the War against Terror can take the war into the enemy's camp - and into his heart.
Can we reform Muslim psyche also while reforming Madrassa curriculum?
Kudos to President Bush for supporting General Musharraf for reforming the curriculum in Madrassas, during the General's recent visit to Washington. On returning to Pakistan, General Musharraf has also called upon Muslim countries to earmark a fund of a billion dollars for financing the spread of learning science and technology among Muslim countries. Sounds good. But how about reforming the Muslim psyche? If that remains what it is then we shall have in place of the rabble of unlettered jihadis who yell 'Death to America', those like Mohammed Atta (who flew the civilian airliner into the WTC), Sultan Bashiruddin Mehmood (the Pakistani nuclear scientist who shared nuclear secrets with Osama), Omar Sheikh (the Oxford dropout who kidnapped Daniel Pearl) and such others.
How are we to guarantee that by including science and technology in the curriculum of Madrassas, we do not replace unlettered Jihadi cutthroats; with nuclear scientists, aircraft pilots, whose only difference with the unlettered Jihadis would be that they would be more efficient killers and be far more devastatingly successful as they demonstrated on 9/11? This is the question we need to ask when we talk of reforming Madrassa curriculum with modern education. The answer lies in purging the Quran of all its passages calling for murder, rape, torture, of the Kafirs. How can this be done? Can this at all be done?
The 3rd American Ultimatum to General Musharraf?
Many would raise an eyebrow, when we make a statement that during the forthcoming visit of General Pervez Musharraf to Washington, amidst the raising of toasts to Pakistani-American friendship and the signing of accords for economic assistance to Pakistan as a reward for the services rendered by His Excellency Musharraf as a frontline state in the War on Terror, so far, he would also be delivered the 3rd American Ultimatum for converting his words of 12th January into real deeds.
Unbelievable is it? Yes the 1st Ultimatum was delivered to Pervez Musharraf by Colin Powell on Telephone a couple of days after 9/11 (WTC/Pentagon attacks). This ultimatum led Pakistan to join the American led coalition against terrorism, the 2nd Ultimatum was delivered by British Prime Minister Tony Blair in person during a visit to Pakistan after 13/12 (Indian Parliament attack). This ultimatum brought out the famous 12th January speech by Musharraf. Many would like to believe that President Musharraf has been invited to the Oval Office only to be feted for his role as a crusader against terrorism. But the subtle fact is that he has been courteously ordered to make himself present in person to receive the 3rd American Ultimatum to get moving against the Jihadis in earnest and produce results.
By now the Americans have enough evidence that they have culled out of the unlawful combatants held at Gunatanamo Bay. The fact that some of those grilled Al Qaeda detainees have to carried back on stretchers makes evident, the kind of grilling they go through. Some of them must have been singing out the tune that gives out the involvement that the ISI and the Pakistani Military had (and has) with the Al Qaeda. The Americans would want the ISI and Pakistani Military purged of its Al Qaeda elements. This is one demand that is waiting for President Musharraf when he visits the USA.
Incidentally, the kidnapping of Daniel Pearl is also just one indicator that terrorists sympathetic to Al Qaeda lurk under the nose of General Pervez Musharraf and the kidnappers may do Danny in just to drive a point home to the Americans that the writ of Pervez Musharraf does not run with everyone who matters in the dark world of Terrorism in Pakistan. With threats to all American (and Western Journalists) to leave Pakistan, the Americans would also take cue from such signals to decide the future course of relationship with Pakistan.
Not many know that the Taliban Minister Mullah Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil was physically apprehended in Quetta in Pakistan
The US would also want to know what kind of action Musharraf is going to initiate against the Al Qaeda and Taliban who are holed up inside Pakistan as was evident from the surrender of Mullah Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil in Kandahar. Yes he was formally arrested in Kandhar in Afghanistan, but he was physically apprehended in Quetta in Pakistan and was shipped to Kandhar for his formal surrender and arrest. Now another top Taliban General has been apprehended in Peshawar. How many more such rats are going to emerge from their holes in Pakistan is anybody's guess. The number also depends on to what extent Musharraf would like to impress his American hosts, before reaching Washington. But his hosts may want the entire lot out at one go, and not in installments. This could prove difficult for Musharraf to agree to, since it may cause a coup, if not a mutiny in the Pakistani Military. Sooner or later the USA would decide to make public its intelligence reports that point to the assemblage of Taliban and Al Qaeda inside Pakistan, and after this Musharraf would be on a sticky wicket - to arrest and deport all those the Americans say are in Pakistan or to find an alibi not to do so. The Americans are not Indians who would give a list of 20 and wait.
If Musharraf obliges the US, his future inside Pakistan would be in jeopardy due to the rage of the pro Al Qaeda generals in his military. If he dilly dallies as he has been doing with the Indians, since delivering his 'historic' speech on 12th January, the US would decide to act on its own and either bomb the concentrations of Al Qaeda and Taliban refugees in Pakistan, or it may take the more risky option of apprehending them with its own forces. But the second option is doubtful, going by the American experience with apprehending the Somalian warlord Mohammed Aideed. Increasing the number of US troops stationed in Pakistan is also not without risks. The experience in Beirut in Lebanon is an indicator of such risks. In this scenario, the only less risky proposal is to extend the bombing campaign that is now reaching a close in Afghanistan, into Pakistan - in a subtle manner.
It is this, that is going to be on the agenda when the Pakistani General is 'feted' in Washington. This is going to make-up contents of the 3rd Ultimatum that will be delivered to Musharraf; and what he does when he returns to Pakistan would decide the course of American response.
Who is funding the anti-globalization, anti-war movements?
Has anyone wondered why the anti-globalization protests are turning more and more vociferous? What do the anti-war movement and the human rights movement have in common? They are all being financially supported by Islamic charities like Al Rasheed and the Rabita Trust. Anyone surprised?
Now with the 2nd phase of the war against terror waiting to unfold, the Jihadis are making a smart move of trying to use high moral ground to embarrass the anti-terror coalition, especially the United States. We need to give a hard look to the innocuous looking human rights, self-determination, anti-war, peace movements and anti-globalization protests.
Did you ever wonder who replaced the Soviets as paymasters of all these stage-managed protest movements. Shuffling protesters around the Globe in transcontinental flights, making arrangements for their lodging and boarding, and publishing costly propaganda material for their street-shows, is not coming cheap these days.
It is the sinister hand of petrodollars that gives the financial ability for these nefarious activities. The authorities in the US and the rest of the world need to investigate this matter thoroughly and tell everyone the true story. The real face and motivation of this innocent-looking seeming buffoonery should be revealed for what it really is - the new and unobtrusive front-organization of the Jihadis.
In this context, we should note one curious occurrence. While there were wild protests at Davos, Seattle, Genoa, and New York; there were none at Doha. Has anyone wondered why?
Corollary: A suicide bomber would readily go into his enemy's territory to detonate a bomb. But when his enemies assemble at his house, he would keep silent and play safe. Thus he can deflect suspicion from himself. Hence Doha (location for the only globalization meet in the middle east) was the only exception for the anti-globalization protestors.
JEI's Rejoinder to George Bush 's State of the Union address to Congress and consequently Musharraf's changing of his colours once again
Not many of us would realize the implication of the startling revelation by the JEI (Jamaat-e-Islami) that 3 days prior to delivering his speech on 12th January, President Musharraf had a showdown with his Corps Commanders and he had threatened to resign over differences over his proposed policy shift vis-à-vis the Jihadi organisations that have been sponsored by the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence) - Pakistan's secret service. The compromise reached by General Musharraf to break this imbroglio was that the Corps Commanders recorded and edited the General's speech before it was telecast!
Why has the JEI decided to go public with this highly sensitive piece of news, now? Their action seems to be a rejoinder to President Bush's State of the Union address to Congress, where he lavished praise on Musharraf for his bold steps against the terrorists. The JEI has no reason to be happy with the General for what he is doing. Since they are being laid off from waging a Jihad in Kashmir, while getting nothing in return. They are trying to tell President Bush that in Pakistan, the General is not the unquestioned boss.
The JEI has in a declaration made at Peshawar on the 27th of January, said that they can overthrow the General any time they want to. The JEI's statement could have been dismissed as a hollow boast, but not any longer, in the light of the news about Musharraf's showdown with his Corps Commanders. The dichotomy between the General's mindset and that of his Corps Commanders, the Pakistani military and perhaps a majority of Pakistanis, is evident to many. But, everybody also knows that General Musharraf is the best bet against the Jihadis, and so does President Bush. This was evident when President Bush while stating that the US is building a new relationship with India (along with Russia and China), limited himself to praising Musharraf on a person-to-person level, in his State of the Union address to Congress. The Jihadis too know that the West's last hope in checkmating them is General Musharraf. And so to deliver an unmistakable message to the West they have decided to go public with the showdown which the General had with his Corps Commanders before delivering his speech on 12th January.
Musharraf has changed his colours once again in his speech on the Pakistan sponsored Kashmir Solidarity Day
Now on the Pakistan sponsored Kashmir Solidarity Day that is observed every year on the 5th of February, Pervez Musharraf slipped back into the familiar terminology of self-determination for Kashmiris. The terrorists become freedom fighters once again. And the tacit changing of tactics by the Mujahids who say that they will concentrate on Kashmir alone and not create mayhem in the rest of India are all moves to give a new lease of life to Islamic Jihad in Kashmir in a way that is not too blatant in international and American eyes. All this is being done so that they can carry on their virulent terrorist mayhem in Kashmir. We need to watch Pervez and his Jihadi gangs more closely than ever before.
Can Musharraf unilaterally attack India anytime now due to Chinese maneuvering, and pressure from his Corps Commanders?
It is evident now that since the 12th January speech, General Musharraf has no gains to show to his countrymen. India has not de-mobilized, the talk with India on Kashmir is not happening. But inside Pakistan the moves against Madrassahs and the Jihadi organisations are on, albeit half-hearted. The Balance Sheet has nothing on the asset side. Now in the emerging scenario, Pakistan is imploring India to de-escalate and is promising that it will itself de-escalate.
Pakistan wants to move its army and military hardware back to their peace time locations so that they are suitably camouflaged from any attack (not necessarily from India), but if Pakistan moves its army back today, without India doing so, there is always the threat of an Indian attack. So Pakistan is today in a Catch 22 situation. Amidst all this India has test fired it Agni missile.
So today the mood of the average Pakistani is that of dejection due to being let down by his own President, and of humiliation of having to eat humble pie in face of his hoary enemy - India which refuses to discuss Kashmir, scornfully asks Pakistan to withdraw from POK, while audaciously test-fires a missile without drawing censure from the Americans and steadfastly refuses to de-escalate in face of repeated Pakistani imploring to do so.
In this scenario what can happen inside Pakistan? Can the Pakistani Military Corps Commanders give an ultimatum by to their General-in-Chief Musharraf, to drag India to discuss Kashmir to ultimately cede that province to Pakistan. Fat hope, readers would say. And a fat hope it is, since India did not budge on Kashmir while it has been under terrorists fire for the last decade; so why would it give away Kashmir at the negotiating table? Consequently General Musharraf would have nothing to show to his countrymen as a result of the volte face of 12th January. So it is a matter of time when the General faces another ultimatum from his Corps Commanders to let loose the Pakistani army against India. This would seem incredulous today. But this possibility is in the making!
Pakistan today had been caught in the Indo-American pincer. The Indians (and the Americans) want Musharraf to move against the Jihadis. The Americans, more than the Indians, are watching him deliver, or fail to deliver. The Pakistani common man wants a Jihad against India, he wants Kashmir. An American journalist Daniel Pearl of WSJ has been kidnapped with threats of more such kidnappings. This is symbolic of the mood in Pakistan. The Pakistani military top brass are having their nose rubbed in the ground, due to their General's volte face on the Taliban on the 6th of October and on Kashmir on the 12th of January. For Pakistanis, their joining the International Alliance against Terrorism has been like going to a wife swapping party and returning home alone! Now General Musharraf is really alone, metaphorically speaking. He has nothing to show to his countrymen and to his Corps Commanders. How long can he stay the course he is set upon? In the event of an anti-Musharraf military coup, the Americans may not have time enough to enter Pakistan in a big enough way to keep the General afloat. And so, to stay in power the General may be forced to abide by what his Corps Commanders dictate to him at gunpoint. Remember his sudden change in stance halfway through the talks at Agra after putting through a call to Islamabad? Musharraf can overrule everyone in Pakistan - except his Corps Commanders!
At this juncture today, his hand would be forced to wave the green flag - but no metaphor here. The green flag to give a go ahead to an unilateral Pakistani attack on India. The compulsions for this obviously being his own physical and professional survival. The question is, has the Pakistani military been preparing for this eventuality to achieve missile and non-conventional warhead parity or superiority over India? It seems so with the delivery of missile systems and warheads by China in December 2001.
The Chinese have their own goose to cook in promoting an Indo-Pak war. Through this war the Chinese would be emasculating India - their main rival in Asia and ensuring that Pakistan the main promoter of the unrest in Xinjiang is out of business - out of the Xinjiang business at least. The recent Chinese pronouncements against extending the war against terror to more countries stems from the knowledge that Pakistan is next on the target list of anti-terror operations. A possibility darkly hinted at by President George Bush in his State of the Union address to Congress. It is Pakistan where the next main theatre of war lies. Philippines, Somalia, Iraq are just diversions and minor distractions. When the war moves to Pakistan, bringing the American military there in its wake, the Chinese who are already perturbed at the American presence in Afghanistan, would have more reason to feel uncomfortable. The Chinese would entirely and permanently lose their clout with the Pakistanis after the Americans move in to takeover, as they did in Afghanistan. For the Chinese to obviate the Americans from moving into Pakistan, the best bet is an Indo-Pak war. So lies the logic of our seemingly incredulous prediction that in the face of Chinese maneuvering, when the Corps Commanders of the Pakistani Military put pressure on General Musharraf, he might unilaterally attack India in a final show of defiance.
We hope the Americans and Indians too are following such logic and preparing to pre-empt such an eventuality.
The Kidnapping of Western Journalists - an ominous indication of things to come
Three months back we had spoken about the possibility of Western Journalists being the target of Jihadi kidnappers at a page we had created on this topic. We do not want to gloat over this and we are unhappy that our prediction has come true in the case of Daniel (Danny) Pearl the Wall Street Journal staffer. But talking about the future, we need to state here that the kidnapping of Danny by the National Movement for the Restoration of Pakistani Sovereignty, is going to be a watershed event.
Up to now kidnappings were made for monetary ransom or to secure the release of criminals under detention. But now the demands are for the delivery of F16s to Pakistan. Quite a interesting change in the nature of demands! The demand for release of Pakistani Al Qaeda prisoners is another notable demand using a Journalist as a piece of cheese to bend the will of the United States. These demands may not be accepted. But what may be accepted is that the unlawful combatants (read homicidal maniacs and zombie killers) being held at Camp X-Ray may be given POW status to save the life of Daniel Pearl, the kidnapped Wall Street Journal staffer, giving a boost for more such kidnappings. And that the cult of revenge kidnappings would target more such Journalists, and TV crews is easy to figure out.
Journalists go unprotected to all nooks and crannies in search of scoops. They are easy to lure and easy to kidnap. In their routine professional activity, Journalists, seek news, and in the context of the War on Terror, that involves interaction with Jihadi organizations. But with such kidnappings, this may soon become a thing of the past. Henceforth no sensible Journalist can take the risk of going without security cover to meet any Jihadi official. He/She cannot be at liberty to get into secretive activities in search of a scoop. We should also say that the claimed 'silent majority' of Pakistanis may be with President Musharraf, but the Jihadi elements (we do not know if they are really a minority among Pakistanis) would continue to hit soft and vulnerable targets with deadly effectiveness.
How many Jihadi sympathizers lurk among the Pakistani Military, Police, Civil Service and the Government?
We do not know how many Jihadi sympathizers lurk among the Pakistani Military, Police, Civil Service and the Government. They may never come out openly to profess their sympathies and loyalty, but would continue to undermine the War Against Terror and harm all those who come their way. The first to be targeted would be the Western (and other anti-Jihadi) Journalists, TV Crews. Businessmen; the diplomats from non-Islamic countries being the next in line. To counter the hidden Jihadis, they would have to be drawn out of their facades, their clout would have to be gauged, their military capability and potential has to be drawn out in the open. We wonder if this is what is actually happening today with the Pakistani army in a state of mobilization, their missiles being pulled out of silos and readied for deployment along the Indian border.
A significant event is that while the Indian and Pakistani armies are eyeball-to-eyeball, the Agni missile is test fired by India, with no severe reaction against the firing from the Western World. This instinctively should prompt Pakistan to retaliate in kind, further exposing the locations of its missile delivery systems. What is curious is that Pakistan is holding back it normal tit-for-tat response and keeping the Shaheen, Hatf and Ghaznavi in cold storage. Does Pakistan fear that revealing too much at this stage could facilitate laser guided retaliation in the near future - when the War against Terror reaches Pakistani soil in the near future.
Is there more than meets the eye in the quiet acquiescence to India's test firing of a missile at this juncture when its army is in an eyeball confrontation with a hoary enemy. In the refusal of that enemy to return in kind, or even in words a threat of carrying out a retaliatory missile test. In the resumption of American arms sales to India (and not to Pakistan, while the Pakistani kidnappers demand the delivery as the F16s to Pakistan as a price for the life of the Wall Street staffer). In the assertive statement of India's Prime Minister that we can talk Kashmir after Pakistan return POK to India. In the CBS report that around the 11th of September Osama had undergone dialysis for his kidney in Rawalpindi. In the FBI's checking out the Saudia and PIA Haj bound flights originating from Pakistan, in their hunt for Al Qaeda suspects trying to slip off from Pakistan to Mecca. And above all in the statement of President Musharraf addressed to India, but intended to be a subtle message to the US, to not sit in judgement on the anti-Jihadi measures he is taking. Is there more than meets the eye in all these developments?
All these developments seem to have a link. In our reckoning the link lies in the preparation of the ground for an eventual strike to decapitate Pakistani missile delivery capability, at the beginning of the Phase 2 of the War against Terror that would be fought in Pakistan. And fought in Pakistan, because that is where most of those who matter from the Al Qaeda and Taliban have found refuge. If this Phase is delayed then the deadly crowd who should have been by now at Camp X-Ray at Guantanamo Bay, would succeed in slipping off to circumambulate the Kaaba at Mecca, out of the reach of International Law. The International Alliance against Terrorism needs to get its act going fast, if they are to trap their quarry who is till today in Pakistan.
Is there a similarity in the fights of Charlie Chaplin and those of General Musharraf?
Many readers may say 'what a nonsensical question is this'. How can you compare the two. One was a comedian and the other is a leader of the frontline state in the War on Terror. But hang on. Do you remember the fights which Charlie indulged in to the delight of the audience? In those fights Charlie and his opponent hit out with aplomb at each other. The audience's delight came not from the fight itself, but from the fact that both Charlie and his opponent ducked in the nick of time so that the blow went and hit an unsuspecting yokel who was standing by the side. Just recollect these mock fights of Charlie Chaplin in his soundless movies. Charlie Chaplin was acting in these mock fights, and in fact even the unsuspecting yokel in his film who got hit unwittingly was not really hit. There was only an action of a mock hit, and the actor who was hit, pretended that he was hit - much to the delight of the audience.
Now look at the situation today. Like Charlie Chaplin and his opponent, India and Musharraf are trading punches - with both the Indian and Pakistani armies being massed at the borders. Now if we consider this mobilization to be like the mock blows of Chaplins films, the question is who is that unsuspecting yokel who is actually getting hit? Obviously the Jihadi organisations against whom the General delivered his speech on the 12th of January.
The next question now is that, the blows that Chaplin delivered at his opponent (like the moves of Indian and Pakistani armies of massing against each) were meant to hit an unsuspecting yokel (read, the Jihadi organisations). But the point was that, even that unsuspecting yokel who was seen to have got hit, was hit actually by a mock blow, not a real one!
Extending the similarity further to the situation today, are the blows with which General Musharraf is hitting the Jihadi organisations, also as mockingly unreal as those of Chaplin's? That’s anybody's guess.
Everyone knows that the scenario since the 7th of October, when the War against Terror actually began in a military way, is evolving in a very interesting way. First, a rebel force was pitted against a Jihadi government in Afghanistan. To make it clearer, the Northern Alliance was pitted against the Jihadi Taliban. And now a ruling clique is trading punches with its neighbor, for the blows to land on the Jihadi rebels. To make it clearer, the Indian and the Musharraf governments are trading punches for the blows to land on the Jaish, Laskhar, Tamir, etc. We have no complaints. Since all this is happening for the good, since it undermines the Jihadis.
But the only nagging question is; are the punches; that Musharraf is using the Indo-Pak military build up to deliver to the Jihadis; real punches? Or are they mock punches, like those in the Tramp's (Chaplin's) films. A question which the Americans will have to answer if they are to make any further real progress in the War Against Terror.
General Musharraf why are you so desperate that India de-escalates?
Often times you have shaken your fist at India and have vowed that
you will teach India a lesson, if Indians decide to attack Pakistan.
So General Sir, why are you so keen that India de-escalates? General
Sir, don't tell us that you are an apostle of peace. Since, you are
the architect of Kargil. It was you who attacked India
surreptitiously, before you had to withdraw at the orders from Blair
House. Again you are a professional soldier whose honour lies in
fighting; and above all you come from a community that glorifies
swordplay for either converting or confronting Kafirs (a word you
yourself used to describe non-Muslims in you speech on the 12th of
So General Sir, why are you so keen to avoid a war, when you yourself
unleashed one at Kargil in 1999 and belong to a war mongering
community that has ravaged the world from the year 632 A.D.? Is there
something more than meets the eye in your fervent appeals asking
India to de-escalate?
Maybe you have a hunch that in the event of an Indo-Pak war, the
Americans to prevent a nuclear war, will have to step into Pakistan
in a way as to effectively take over your country as they have done
with your western neighbor, (albeit for slight different
compulsions). And perhaps this is the reason why you moved in without
notice to take charge of Jacobabad and other airfields that you had
given to the Americans to be used for an indefinite period. This also
explains your over-eagerness to pronounce Osama to be dead, so that
the hunt for him does not bring the B52s over Pakistani skies and
more so does not trample Pakistan under the boot-soles of American
After 9/11 and 13/12, what else are you waiting for General Musharraf
General Musharraf, you only respond to pressure. You responded to the
pressure on you after 9/11 by jettisoning the Taliban, and now after
13/12 attack on the Indian parliament, and the call to arms by India,
you have said that you will crack down on the Jihadis. Irrespective
of whether you really want to do what you are doing, it is now
certain that you respond only after pressure is built on you - after
some catastrophic event.
Now General Sir, what event are you waiting for before you punish
(not just apprehend) the thousands of Jihadis in Pakistan? Are you
waiting for one of these desperadoes to try to assassinate you; or
worse still are you waiting for a failed coup attempt before you
start to act decisively against the Jihadis, if not by executing them
then at least by offering to deport their leaders to the Hague, for
crimes against Indian and for the assault on America. Don't tell us
that the Jihadis in Pakistan are not guilty of any of these crimes.
Everyone knows by now that the Islamic Jihad is seamless across
organisations and across nations. The swamp that breeds Al Qeada,
also breeds the Jaish, Sipah, Lashkar, Tamir, Hamas, Hezbollah, Abu
The finance for the Jihad may originate in Petrodollars, but these Petrodollars are siphoned off through Pakistan into hands
as those like Mohammed Atta's The world now knows the underhand
dealings of Pakistanis that lead up to the event of 9/11 and 13/12.
If you overwrite all this, even then the slogans that the Jihadis
shout out like "Mushar Gaddar Hai Hai" (Musharraf is a Traitor)
Hindustan Murdabad" (Destroy India) and "Death to America" when they
burn the effigies of President George Bush; prove their credentials,
their mindset and what they would actually do if they have the
opportunity to do that - in the same way as the very dangerous
unlawful combatants detained at Guantanamo Bay would want to kill
Americans if they could.
So General Sir, what are you now waiting for
before you actually punish or deport the leaders of these Jihadis?
The Hidden Message in President Musharraf's Speech
The Hidden Message in President Musharraf's Speech - "If we want to
strengthen Islam, then we will have to strengthen Pakistan."
We compliment President Musharraf on cracking down on terrorists,
making the building on new mosques subject to a governmental NOC,
declaring a policy to regulate the syllabus of the Madarassas. We
hope such measures are reciprocated by the rest of the world too
where religion and politics are being mixed - as in India for
instance by the VHP, Bajrang Dal in their campaign to construct a
Hindu temple to their god Ram at Ayodhya.
But many of us who are applauding President Musharra today for
cracking down on terrorists have missed the fine print in his speech
where he has said; "Pakistan Islam ka Killa Hai." "Pakistan is the
bastion of Islam." And "Agar Islam koh Mazboot banana hai, toh hame
Pakistan koh mazboot banana chahiye." "If we want to strengthen
Islam, then we will have to strengthen Pakistan." "Gaye kuch saalon
mein hamene, zyada Musalmaanon koh Kafir banaya hian, aur kam Kafiron
koh Musalmaan." "In the last few year we have converted more Muslims
into Kafirs (non-Muslims) and less Kafirs into Muslims." All these
phrases are extracted from the President's address. The entire
International media has missed the impact of these statements that
are hidden in a mass of messages that otherwise seem to be calling
for a Muslim Reformation.
But we can ignore the implications of these thoughts of President
Musharraf only at our peril. Had President Bush said that "America is
the bastion of Christianity." And "If we want to strengthen
Christianity, then we ought to strengthen America." And further
that "In the last few years we have converted more Christians into
pagans and less pagans into Christians." If President had said
something like this in an address to the American nation, then how
would the global media would have reacted. Their reaction to his
singular use of the word "Crusade" is one example of the kind of
reaction we could have expected. Even a more direct statement by the
Italian Prime Minister that Christian civilization is superior to the
Islamic one drew sharp retorts from the media. Then how is it that
the media is totally silent now?
And is it that President Musharraf wants to strengthen Islam in due
course? This is what Osama Bin Laden also wants! What has been the
track record of Islam in the last 14 centuries and what could be the
implication of strengthening Islam for the future? Why does President
Musharraf have to refer to non-Muslims using the derogatory
term "Kafir" (Infidel)? And does he want more non-Muslims to be
converted to being Muslims? Why does he look upon Pakistan to be
bastion of Islam and why does he want to strengthen Islam by
strengthening Pakistan? All this is very disturbing for the future,
if President Musharraf is allowed to realize his dream, since it does
not seem far removed from Osama's world view! The hidden message in
President Musharraf 's speech deserves to be taken note of.
A logical reversal of President Musharraf's message
A logical reversal of President Musharraf's message - If we have to
counter Islam then we have to counter Pakistan, "the bastion of
If the aim of the international Coalition against Terror is to
counter Islamic Terrorism, then by extension we have to counter Islam
and Pakistan - which is the bastion of Islam, in President
Musharraf's words. This bastion was the birthplace of the Taliban, Al
Qaeda, Jaish, Lashkar, Ummah-Tamir-e-Nau and many other expressions
of contemporary Islamic Terrorism.
Over the last few decades, Pakistan's closest and most consistent
ally has been China. With Pakistan today facing international
pressure to crack down on terrorists, it is the Chinese who have
supplied fighter planes to Pakistan. We need to take note of the
possibility that in a future scenario where the Islamic world gets
polarized militarily against the West; then Pakistan could be the
conduit through which China could ally itself with the Islamic world
against the West. This possibility today would appear remote, but is
a distinct one given the distrust which the Chinese have for the
West, and the fair-weather friendship that they have demonstrated
While China itself has to fear from the Muslim terrorist movement in
Xinjiang, if that movement is held back by pressure from Pakistan,
then the Chinese could be swung against the West. Even during his
recent visit to China, President Musharraf was asked by the Chinese
to help them to overcome unrest in Xinjiang - a province which the
Muslims refer to as Eastern Turkestan. And significantly President
Musharraf used the same term to refer to that disturbed province. But
this fact seems to have escaped the attention of the Chinese, as has
the message in President Musharraf's speech, for strengthening Islam
by strengthening Pakistan, seems to have escaped the notice of the
West and the international community.
The Lesson for China, if Kashmir flares up
China needs to think twice when they supply fighter aircrafts to the
Pakis. They are repeating the mistake that the Americans did when
they supplied Stinger missile to the Mujahideen which were used by
the Jihadis against the Americans in the recent war. Do the Chinese
want their own aircrafts to be used against them, by a future
hardline Jihadi regime in Pakistan after the Musharraf regime falls?
Again at a more fundamental level, in the remote possibility of
Kashmir becoming an independent Islamic Republic, China would be the
first to face the brunt of Islamic terrorism. Till the overthrow of
the Taliban, the Jihadis could seamlessly move from Afghanistan into
Kashmir and on to Kashghar (in Xinjiang). Now with the Taliban pushed
under the carpet, the Jihadis are surreptitiously moving into
Kashmir. And now if Kashmir is made into an independent Islamic
republic, as Pakistan today wants, then the next logical target for
the Jihadis would be Xinjiang or Eastern Turkestan, as they prefer to
call it. In that scenario, China would have its hands bloodied
fighting the Islamic Jihad. History has been evidence to the fact
that the Islamic Jihad which moved like a hot knife through butter in
its truculent march from Mecca to Poitiers (or Tours in France) in
the West to Sindh (India) in the East; was halted at India. The Jihad
had been turned back from France by Charles Martel and it had been
fought to a standstill in India in a struggle spread over one
thousand years. But if the Jihad had overrun India, then the next
logical target for the Jihadis would have been India neighbor -
China. In fact China did have a brush with the Jihad, when they were
defeated by the Arab Muslims in the battle on the Talas river in the
8th century. But since then the efforts of the Jihadis have been
trapped in the Indian struggle against Islam. And so China was saved
the trouble from this death struggle against Islam But now if the
Jihadis succeed in Kashmir then of course the force of events will
make Xinjiang the next battleground for the Jihad. We hope the
Chinese realize this.
Decoding an encrypted message, gave us a revealing insight into what
some Retired Pakistani Army officers think of American efforts to
help defuse the current Indo-Pak tensions. They say that America is
not trying to prevent an India-Pakistan war. But the Americans are in
fact trying to avoid the necessity of they themselves having to take
over charge in Pakistan in a messy operation that might become
necessary if the Musharraf regime is overthrown and a hardline Jihadi
general seizes power in Pakistan subsequent to or even during an
India-Pakistan war. This set us thinking if there could be more to
the feverish American efforts to twist Musharraf's arms to oblige
India in way that can lead to anything short of an India-Pakistan
war. And if the war does break out leading to replacement of
Musharraf by a hardline Jihadi general, then the American may have to
put in motion their own "Operation Takeover" in Pakistan - starting
off the Pakistani chapter of the War against Terror. In saying this,
we think we are quite close to the mark as far as reading the
American strategy for India-Pakistan peace moves is concerned.
With Terrorism being worsted by the West how can the Jihadis strike now?"
It quite possible that to deliver shocks to an already shaken world,
the Jihadis can be expected to do something unprecedented. But what
exactly will they do? They may try to hit the West with Dirty Bombs
smuggled in through the sea shore. They may try to engineer coups and
unrest in Muslim countries - Pakistan being a prime candidate for
such a move, since Osama Bin Laden is hiding there. In the non-Muslim
countries where they have no connections in the military, they may
try to seize radio and TV transmission stations in any part of the
globe and announce that they have taken over that country.
This way they can cause a crisis of confidence in that country and in
the global community at least for a few hours and show that these
countries can be brought at their mercy of the Jihadis. Authorities
across the globe. For countries like India especially have to be on
their guard and increase the security around the Radio, TV and other
mass communication broadcasting facilities and other sensitive
Random Suggestions for an Indo-Pak Entente - A Hotline from N.Delhi
With the two armies in an 'eyeball to eyeball' state along the
border, any mischance could lead to an accidental start of
hostilities. So a hotline connecting the offices and residences of
the two heads of state in India (Vajpayee) and Pakistan (Musharraf)
would be a safety valve to put out any accidental fire that might
erupt. A similar hotline connecting the offices and residences of the
two Defence Ministers in India (George Fernandes) and Pakistan
(Musharraf); as also one connecting the two Army chiefs in India
(Padmanabhan) and Pakistan (Musharraf), as also one connecting the
two Presidents in India (K.R.Natayanan) and Pakistan (Musharraf)
would be ideal. Anyway we guess Musharraf would have no grudge about
such multiple connections!
Suggestions for De-escalation along the Indo-Pak border
Now that the two armies are concentrated along the border, they can
serve an unusual useful purpose of sealing off the flow of militants
from Pakistan, as the Pakistani army is in fact doing along the
Afghan border. The Pakistani Rangers can if they so desire join hands
with the Indian BSF (Border Security Force) to do this job. It is an
open question as to how many in the Pakistan military are in their
hearts loyal to their President's declared anti-terrorist initiative
or they secretly harbour Jihadi tendencies.
An outlandish Suggestion
With civil unrest, political assassinations, coup attempts that are
ready to erupt in Pakistan any day; another outlandish, but logically
and strategically necessary role for the Indian army could be to help
to shore up the pro-Musharraf faction in the event of any such
eventuality. For doing this, its continued deployment along the
border would give it logistical convenience to co-ordinate moves with
the pro-Musharraf forces in any joint operations that might become
"How Osama Could escape out of Pakistan"
Osama could disguise himself as a Western businessman by shaving off
his beard and sporting a business suit. This is what quite a few
folks are saying. But this is a very logical prediction. Osama
believe in doing the least expected. Has it crossed the mind of
anyone that he might use the Haj pilgrimage season to simply join the
Hajis and board one of the ships bound for Haj. This way he would
have a readymade company of sympathizers who could lay their lives
down for him, in the event of his dhow (Arab sailing vessel) being
apprehended by one of the American warships in the Gulf.
Along with the Hajis he would also reach Mecca - an area where non-
Muslims are not allowed and where the writ of the Saudi police also
does not run, since it comes under the jurisdiction of the religious
police (the Muttawah). By placing himself in the vicinity of the
Kaaba - the heart of Muslim religious identity, he would make it all
the more difficult for anyone to reach him, without causing a
conflagration. And it is conflagration which is what he in fact
wants. So it is quite plausible that from Pakistan, he might try to
slink away to Saudi Arabia along with the Hajjis. The US better keep
track of him on these lines.
Treatment of the Unlawful Combatants at Guantanamo Bay
Those who are raising a hue and cry about the treatment of Unlawful Combatants
at Guantanamo Bay should ask themselves the question about the crimes that
these Unlawful Combatants have committed in Afghanistan and what some of their
compatriots committed in the US on 9/11. These Unlawful Combatants should
certainly be disabled in a way that they and their types are never a threat to
civilization. A humane way would be brain-wash them, and then re-educate them.
If that is not possible then life-long captivity is the only way out, a
Nuremberg like trial for their leaders would be acceptable. But in no
circumstances should they be allowed to cause the rampage that they are bound
to cause if they are ever let loose. That would be a miscarriage of justice and
* For those uninitiated, PBUH expands to Perpetual Battle Upon Hagarism (Islam) – founded by the mass-murderer and pedophile pretender prophet Mohammed-ibn-Abdallah (Yimach Shmo – May his name and memory be obliterated).
Unfortunately for humankind, the end of the death-seeking fiery cult of Islam can only come about through a fiery death-giving weapon. Ironically such nuclear mushroom clouds would be the blazing hell-fire that the Quran talks about and acknowledges will bring about an end to Islam such that there will be no one across the globe to say “Lah ilah il Allah, Mohammed ur Rasoolallah” (There is no god but allah and Mohammed is his prophet).