- Military news Analysis - -
Islamabad with inputs from correspondents at Brussels, London, Washington and New York:
With The EU and American Delegations now at Islamabad, the true mind of the Pakistani Government on where they really stand in the coming War - with the Americans or with the Taliban.
Laden asks Pakistan for use of its Nuclear Capability!
In this context we need to take into account the faxes sent by Al Qaida asking the Pakistani people to join the Jihad. More disturbing is the interview given by Osama Bin Laden to the Al Jazira Arabic TV Channel where he says that his organisation had financially helped Pakistan to acquire the Nuclear capability and he himself was the first to congratulate Pakistan after the Chagai Tests on making the first Islamic Atomic Bomb. He further adds that today the time has come for the government of Pakistan to come out openly in favour of Islam and allow the Jihad to use Pakistan's nuclear capability.
The Jihadi Hawks in the Pakistani Establishment
The EU and American Military delegations have to be alive to this reality that lurks below the surface in Pakistan. Leading Pakistani Intelligence and Military personalities like Hamid Gul and Aslam Beg have gone on record after the 11th of September that it would be foolish for the Americans to attack Afghanistan, such an attack would be perceived as an attack on Islam, and that the Muslims love to fight and love to die while fighting to kill their enemies. This kind of a blood-feud psychology is alien to the West and we doubt if they fathom its import fully.
While the UAE and the Saudi government have withdrawn recognition to the Taliban regime, why is the Pakistani government still in refraining from doing so?
While the UAE and the Saudi government have withdrawn recognition to the Taliban regime, why is the Pakistani government still in refraining from doing so? To say that they want to keep a window open to the Taliban is pulling wool over the eyes of the West. If the Pakistanis wanted to keep a window open, then why did they withdraw all their personnel form the Pakistani Embassay at Kabul. They should have retained them there. Since being near the Taliban authorities is essential, if the Pakistanis want to have communication with the Taliban, given the fact that all radio communication has been stopped by the Taliban inside Afghanistan and that to ensure total secrecy, the Jihadis prefer communication in person, rather than over any media whatsoever. This scenario today in the Pakistani establishment is alive with worrisome conspiracy and we would not know where President Musharraf stands in this catacomb of conspiracies.
It's must for America to gain access and control over all nuclear/chemical and biotech arsenal that Pakistan possesses as long as Musharraf is the President
In this scenario a sensible suggestion is to get as much as possible from Musharraf till he is at the helm. It's a short time before Musharraf is overthrown by his army men supporting Taliban and Osama and fighting for Islam. So it's must for America to gain access to all nuclear/chemical and biotech arsenal that Pakistan possesses. Or else not only it will be used against Israel and India but there is a distinct possibility of it being used against USA (and Europe) in the next round of terror that could dwarf the happenings of the 11th of Sept. This is the scenario we can expect, once Pakistan's nuclear capability falls into the hands of Jihadis.
The clock had started ticking much before the alarm went off
The clock had started ticking much before the alarm went off. In India, the war against terrorism had started long back when that country was fighting single-handed against terrorism in Kashmir and was asking global attention for fight against this. The failure was in being able to foresee any such action against America; and hence America lost an opportunity thwart any such attempt.
America lost the advantage of early Retaliatory action
Even after 11th of September, America again lost the advantage of early Retaliatory action. It seems that Americans are now-a-days thinking like Indian politicians due to continuous interaction and have started thinking about "what world will say if we act". The Americans have forgotten their useful motto "Shoot first ask questions later." The situation today is full of dangerous possibilities and also of possible pre-emptive and unconventional methods of thwarting the threats.
Let's analyze various issues on this background:
The Strategy Unfolded
Strategies-the word originated for war strategies has three major components,
1.Plan-Where various analysts are involved and not only the plan for action is decided but also the likelihood of various possible scenarios and it's impact is decided. Since there is possibility of different outcomes depending on lot of external factors, the plans has to be flexible enough to accommodate changing patterns so that the cost can be minimized.
Since this is more of a geo-political impact study more number of politicians and bureaucrats and lesser number of defense personnel are involved.
2.Action -This involves planning of forces deployment and actual action which is technical in details and hence mainly handled by defense personnel with lesser involvement of politicians and bureaucrats.
3.Tactics - This is area of clandestine operations and gaining intelligence information and planning such operations. This involves mainly people from agencies like FBI and spy network. US has been heavily using this post World War 2 and in cold-war times. having know this let us analyze what actions are being done in these areas by US govt.
1.Plan-The immediate target is Osama. However the plan is to avoid making the clash appear as a war against Islam. So the political engine is up trying making allies-one to minimize the risk of being sole action on behalf of US and inviting trouble, and second to try and bring as many Muslim nations to support and/or participate the action so that the war is not seen as against Islam. Also if through pressure the immediate target, Osama, is achievable further action can be avoided.
2.Action- Here the focus is to take the actual war as far as possible from the American Soil. Use Northern alliance to fight against Taliban, use Pakistani bases for attack, unite NATO forces to take part in actual action.
3.Tactics- This has been mainly concentrated towards catching Osama and destroying Taliban. For this US is using different tactics so that as far as possible the actual war can be avoided.
Increase the award put on Osama's Head
a. Increasing the award put on Osama-Thinking of creating a greed among Osama loyalists.
b. Putting pressure on Taliban through Pakistan for surrendering Osama-By removing sanctions from Pakistan and indicating avoiding war if he is handed over.
c. The biggest of these is asking non-Islamic terrorist organizations like the IRA, Basque separatists, or the LTTE of Sri Lanka to send their squad to kill Laden.
Various possible scenarios vis-a-vis US plan/perception
1.Having lost advantage of early action where the action would have sounded like an action against terrorism, the plan of US to unite Islamic countries on their side now seems to be a remote possibility.
The Jihadi forces had too much of time at their disposal for indulging in propaganda war and the generally emotion-surcharged Islamic masses are becoming more aggressive in forcing their leaders to support for the cause of Islam.
Not only that but the Taliban and other Islamic organizations will use methods-like appealing to Muslims all over the world to support the Tailban, by running fund raising campaigns and may even go to the extent of killing their own leaders and pointing fingers at the USA as the culprit indulging in attempts to finish Islam.
2.So even though US may initially be able to get support from one or two Islamic countries they may soon withdraw support on backlash of their own countrymen else the leaders will be overthrown.
3. In such a scenario it will be a must for US to bring in Russia, China, Japan, Israel and India into the joint action group against terrorism only then much against the wishes/hopes of USA and other nations, will be world action against terrorism succeed.
4.World War 3 is unavoidable-only when is the question. It will be all other religions against Islam, all other nations against Islam. In such a case not only it will be war with Islamic nations; but there will also be parallel civil wars in countries like India, US, UK and .....China to a limited extent.
5.Use media to Highlight the severity of this war to the masses and mobilize world opinion for the same. Also try to have coverage on such issues which will highlight that it is going to be an action against Islam at the wishes of Islamic militants.
Use Pakistan tactically for a limited time
Use tactical warfare for a limited time To some politicians using Pakistan, Northern alliance IRA and LTTE to defeat Taliban and kill Osama itself is wrong in principle. But yet to achieve the immediate target this should be done. If the USA uses Pakistan, Northern Alliance, IRA, LTTE, etc., then it can gain in the short term and in the long term the USA can then take its time to subsequently nail Pakistan and other non-Islamic terrorist organizations like IRA, LTTE.
Best is if at all the USA uses a nail to remove another nail from the leg, it should not forget to break both of them; once the job is over.
In the final analysis, only united action and cleansing of all such fanatical elements within each and every nation will be required and the only solution to end world terrorism.
Strategy and Tactics while dealing with Pakistan in all future military and other logistic co-ordination
Needless to add, the USA will henceforth have to be more shrewd while playing tactical warfare and NOT end up in creating enemies by it's action which can come back to it as they did on the 11th of September 2001. This is the paramount guiding principle to be borne in mind while dealing with Pakistan today as also in all future military and other logistic co-ordination with that volatile country. We hope the EU and American Military delegations who are at Islamabad are also thinking on similar lines.
Read other pages giving an analysis of the latest Global News at newsonterror.com
- The http://www.newsonterror.com team
(This Newsonterror Site is managed by a Virtual Team of Webmasters across the globe. The articles included at this site do not necessarily represent the views of the Webmasters.)
Send your feedback to:
- The Newsonterror Team
From the Hindu Mahasabha
We invite you to join the Newsonterror Discussion eGroup.
You may view what others have said about this webpage|
We invite you to use our Message Board to start a discussion on any relevant topic
We invite you to participate in an online chat in our Hindu History Chatroom.